Hitting a brick wall After two years of playing poker on a daily basis (and I mean at home every night, online most days, and at the casinos every other month or so), I finally had one of those sessions you hopefully have only heard about. We were playing a 0.25/0.50 NL home game. Actually started out real nice, when I cracked aces with T4s (flopped a pair and a flush draw and was all in on the flop, caught the flush on the river). This was probably really bad karma for me. However, I put him on the high pocket pair, and I knew I was even money, so it was a good gamble for me. First bad beat, I caught a flush on the turn against pocket 9's. Board was Ts 5s Tc 7s. I had KsJs. Pushed the person all-in. They for some reason couldn't lay down their 99 in the face of knowing they were beat (and honestly, I was happy about that). River came another T to catch their 4 outer for a boat. Later, it was folded to me in the small-blind. I raised the bb with 99. He called. Flop came out Tc 9s 7c. I bet out, and he raised, I pushed all-in. I really didn't care if he had the straight, since I could draw out. However, it was horrible when I saw him flip over TT for the overset. This was the first time in my poker career I ever hit against an over-set (except in Omaha, of course, where it's quite frequent, and generally it's easier to get away from a low set). After the turn and river, it was done. Now, I was on my third buy-in. I wasn't happy, but I expect at times for this to happen. If I get to a third buy-in on a session, eventually my correct plays will start paying off. Later, I called a middle position raise from the big blind with 66. Flopped my second set for the night on a Q67 board. I checked it, knowing that the guy that raised plays his hands real agressive. I few raises later, we were all-in. I flipped over my set, he flipped over QQ, for the top set. Again, I was up against it. Now I found an article that discusses the probability of set-over-set, http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/. To get right to the numbers, the chances of only two people in a 10 handed game getting dealt distinct pocket pairs and flopping sets is about 1 in 1035. Now, that's 10 handed, and we were only 6 handed, so the numbers are probably a lot higher in my case. So this greater than 1 in a thousand case occured twice to me in one night. Considering we were probably getting maybe 25 hands per hour, and played for 7.5 hours, for a total of about 175-200 hands, the odds were really screwing me over. I haven't done the math, but I would put a number on this occurence at about 1 in a million (me being in both the set-over-set hands in 175 hands, and being on the losing end of it both times). Usually when I take a loss, I can blame myself. I can point back to my mistakes. This time, however, I can't see where I did anything wrong. I was a victim of the cards. So I don't hold any malice toward the players I was against, nor am I bitching about bad-luck. That's just the way things happen. I chalk it up as a losing session, and move on. I guess I can expect more sessions like this in the future, but for the long-run, I think I can stay profitable.